A 40% speed gap between urban and rural Nigeria, a South African 2G/3G sunset that could unlock faster networks by 2027, and evidence that 5G ranking boosts fade within months. These are among the findings shared by Karim Yaici, Industry Analyst at Ookla, in written responses to questions from TECH dot AFRICA.
The responses follow Ookla’s 2025 Speedtest Global Index analysis, which showed sub-Saharan Africa stagnating on mobile speeds while North African markets surged up the rankings after launching 5G.
South Africa’s ranking drop is relative, not absolute
South Africa’s 5-place drop to 64th globally does not reflect a decline in raw speed. Median download speeds actually edged up from 48 Mbps to 49 Mbps during 2025, Yaici noted. The problem is that other countries improved faster.
“For a country to move up in the global ranking, it is the result of policy, operational, and commercial initiatives,” Yaici said.
He pointed to 2G/3G sunsetting as a key lever. South Africa is the most advanced country in sub-Saharan Africa on this front, targeting a phased shutdown by 2027. Switching off legacy networks frees up spectrum for 5G, increasing capacity while reducing operating costs and energy consumption. No other country in the sub-region has completed such a transition.
Beyond spectrum refarming, Yaici identified network densification, lower mobile data costs, and device financing schemes as pathways to recovery.
The 5G ranking spike fades fast
North Africa’s dramatic 2025 gains came with a caveat: the initial boost from 5G launches is temporary. Yaici provided two case studies that illustrate the pattern.
Egypt launched 5G in June 2025 and peaked at 68th on the Speedtest Global Index that same month, up from 86th at the start of the year. By December, it had slipped back to 83rd. Tunisia showed slightly more resilience, peaking at 47th in April (2 months after its February launch) before declining to 72nd by year-end.
Whether a country sustains its gains depends on 3 factors, according to Yaici: the rate of 5G subscriber growth, operators’ capacity to expand networks to meet rising data demand, and the availability of sufficient spectrum to deliver 5G’s full capabilities.
Côte d’Ivoire’s fixed broadband lead is a base-size effect
Côte d’Ivoire ranks highest in sub-Saharan Africa for fixed broadband despite relatively low penetration. Yaici attributed this to the structure of its market rather than affordability.
“Tariffs in Côte d’Ivoire are not necessarily more affordable than those in other countries, such as Senegal or Kenya,” he said. “However, their entry-level broadband tariffs tend to be high, starting at 50 Mbps, which means there is a higher concentration of higher-speed users.”
In other words, the country’s ranking reflects a small user base concentrated on fast connections rather than widespread, affordable access.
Nigeria’s urban-rural gap: 40% on downloads, 65% on uploads
Speedtest Intelligence data can quantify the urban-rural divide, and the numbers are stark. Yaici cited a recent report commissioned by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) that found rural median download speeds increased from 7.5 Mbps in January 2025 to 11 Mbps by December 2025—an improvement, but still 40% lower than in urban areas.
The upload speed gap is even wider at 65%, a disparity that affects everything from video calls to cloud-based business tools in rural communities.
3 policy priorities for sub-Saharan governments
For governments seeking to replicate North Africa’s rapid ranking improvements, Yaici outlined 3 priorities:
- Spectrum policy. Regulators should accelerate spectrum refarming, activate new carriers to boost capacity, and enforce minimum download speeds as a condition of operator licences.
- Infrastructure investment. Deploy new 5G sites, increase site densification, and address coverage and capacity gaps — particularly in underserved areas.
- Commercial measures. Lower the cost per GB of mobile data and offer device financing schemes to make high-speed connectivity accessible to more users.
The introduction of 5G remains the single biggest catalyst for ranking improvements, Yaici said, but sustaining those gains requires coordinated action across all 3 areas. Countries that treat a 5G launch as the finish line rather than the starting point risk watching their rankings slide back within months.
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